General Thread

[tom]

Abracadabra - if only that worked at this point.

So I'm nominated.

Buuuut, I have some snazzy little surprises up my sleeve(*insert mischievous laugh - NOT evil - here*):

1. I have wonderful British charm. The fact is, the large maity of the cast that I've talked to are very interesting, so it's simple to talk to them. But apparently I'm very popular - I know I've got a connection with Sheree, Billy, Jason, Kathleen and Warren. I know I get on with Tyler too. So the others shouldn't be hard to get in.

2. I have votes to say. Rumour has it that I have 5 votes to stay already. (Sheree and Billy both said that), and I know of 4. So yaaay!

3. I have the SUPERCOLOSSALWOWHURRAYONEANDONLY vote nullifier! No one knows I have it except Kathleen, who i told pre-boxes and seems fairly detached from the game. not sure she'll remember. but no matter, i'm hoping i don't have to use it, but if worst comes to the worst then i will use it on liz. she seems to be a confirmed vote for mitch. then again, it would be fairly moronic if i used it in a 10-1 vote, in comparison to a key decision later...

I'm hoping for a bit of a Dan style strategy - be nice and seem weak.

[tom]

VOTES TO STAY:

Anthony
Billy
Sheree
Kathleen
Jason
Eric

(I have all I need... yaaay!)

VOTES TO GO:

Liz

[tom]

I don't know how safe I am. If I feel unsafe, I will use the vote nullifier, although I'd quite like to save it until a scenario when I am unsafe.

CONFIRMED VOTES TO EVICT MITCH:

Sheree
Billy
Eric
Jason
Kathleen
Tyler
Anthony (confirmed by Billy)
Nathan (confirmed by Warren)


UNSURES:

Donna - I think she's leaning on keeping me.
Scott - no idea how he is voting
Donnann - no idea how she is voting


CONFIRMED VOTES TO EVICT TOM:

Liz

Obviously, people could be lying to me. Buuuut, I doubt it. The six that are voting to keep me I trust to an extent. I don't think they'd lie so blatantly.

Donna has assured me I'm safe, and I believe she'll be voting to evict Mitch.

In short, I need one more vote for a very strong majority. Anthony and Nathan are confirmed by others. I feel safe enough not to use my vote nullifier. Perhaps that is a dumb decision, but I can regret it if I leave the game first. I would rather use its long-term advantage.

[tom]

I'm definitely a parasite.

I cling to those in power. Last week it was Warren, despite being nominated I knew with his influence I would stay in. This week, Anthony and I made an alliance. I don't know what allies I have.

I am definitely aligned with Anthony and Warren. Warren and I will be there for a while. I am also close to Kathleen and Sheree. I would still feel safe should I be nom'd next week. The only people I have no connection with at all are Donna and LiZ. It's ok - I'll live.

[tom]

This game is weird. Everyone is quiet and alliances are fairly unknown. Only one big move has come recently (Scott saving Warren's butt). Pretty much the most noticeable people leave earliest. May as well just go through every player one-by-one, and discuss my plans for them:

Anthony: I am aligned with him and I'm confident that he would keep me safe. We pretty much have the same game plan to get far and I'm sure that we'll both go through. I do feel he has an alliance with Donna, or someone else, I don't know who. I would like to see him be HOH so that I could keep hiding and he could move out and be more noticeable.

Billy: Again, no idea where he stands at the moment, but I don't trust him as much as Anthony. In fact, I am not sure I trust him at all. I have no idea what group he is loyal too, and he is definitely keeping quiet. I would like to see him be the replacement nominee so that he can be more active.

[tom]

Donna: Again, no idea where she stands. I think she is teamed with Anthony, but other than that, no idea. I think we would target mutual interests, but she is floating. I feel she and I could team up though. I would be happy with this arrangement.

Liz: My, my. This one is always on the block, and seemingly always a potential target. She is a threat and if she made it to the end, she would probably win. Furthermore, she would likely put me up if she won HOH. Simply put, she needs to be gone as soon as possible for me. I am trying to over-hype the threat of Warren and Nathan to downplay my involvement with them, and to save myself should she be a future HOH.

[tom]

Eric: No idea where this one stands either, except that he is Sheree's right hand man. He needs to go, simply because he pushes me down the hierarchy. But he is really ill. Nonetheless, he needs to go for me as soon as possible.

Is he Sheree's right hand man? Doubts are there. So we'll see...

Kathleen: She's lovely, definite connection going between us - I think I will definitely talk to her at the end of this game. As for the game, she has my back and I have hers, but she is playing a smart game by not talking game. But it isn't fooling me at all.

[tom]

Nathan: He doesn't have long in this game. Simply put, he was found to be with Warren and people want him out. What will happen? He will be the next out, pretty much whoever he is against, according to Kathleen and Liz. Then again, keeping him in may help me, as he is a definite target. His position at the moment is weak.

Scott: He made a DUMB move by revealing his cards in this game. With everyone staying quiet and even the most remote of leads being investigated and burned out, he made a catastrophic error in saving Warren. Ironically, this burst of strategic idiocy will likely keep him in for a while. He pretty much cannot save himself, being unable to be vetoed. Therefore, he will survive for a few rounds, but not until the end.

Sheree: I trust her, but her apparent betrayal of Warren and Nathan leads me to believe that I too am a pawn in her game. She is playing well though, and the time to act against her isn't even on my radar at the moment. Unless I become the replacement nominee... Even still, I am pretty safe with her and trust her. Plus, she is now at the centre of the Warren/Scott vs. her battle.

Warren: The predictable dispute between Warren and Sheree has happened. He is now at a difficult position in the game, and ties between us will need to sever should I keep myself safe. He needs to win HOH when possible.

[tom]

Well, I'm very pleased about Warren's victory in the HOH. It means, without any doubt, that I'll be safe this week, and will give me at least a position on the jury to decide who wins.

As to who Warren will nominate, there are 9 of us left. After Scott's bold move of last week, he obviously won't go up. Nathan will similarly be sticking around, as will myself.

That leaves Liz and Kathleen, Anthony and Donna and Sheree and Eric. I think Sheree will be nominated without question, and she can't compete in the veto either. He may also nominate Liz, since she also has no ability to play in the veto.

This week could be interesting...

[tom]

Okay, so here is the current state of the game.

We have 3 dyads (I shall name each of them):

Sheric: Made up of Sheree and Eric.
Dontony: Made up of Anthony and Donna.
Lizaleen: Made up of Liz and Kathleen.

Then there is a triad (which I shall also name):

Warthott: Made up of Warren, Nathan and Scott (with Warren as the leading man. This was fairly secret until Scott decided to shove his lot in with them.

---

This could be entirely wrong...

Anyway, I don't get at all why Nathan was kept around. Sure, Billy was unpredictable, but still, he was not with Warren. For Sheric and Lizaleen it was the worst outcome, especially when Warren won HOH.

I am lucky that Billy was voted out, even though I didn't vote in time (sorry again!) I now have no rival singletons, and with the dyads and triads all looking to oust each other (at least, that's their optimal move), I should be guaranteed to get to the final 7 at least, although by then the possibility of lost dyads becomes more problematic.

So, what would Warren's best move be? The reason I am calculating this is because I think it is best to do so - if all players play optimally, then when they don't, things are much easier. We must assume that these players are smart, since they all (generally) are.

He has smartly tired to woo me in, although I haven't given in too much - I like to flock to who is in power, so as to ensure that I can shift back whenever I need to. Flexibility. Anyhoo, Warren won't nominate me. He hasn't had the chance to communicate, plus he wants and needs my vote. So I am definitely safe this week.

Those vulnerable are the three dyads. Dontony should be safe this week - their votes can be used, and they are also in a fairly floatery position. But Sheric and Lizaleen are vulnerable. It is definitely in Warren's optimal move to nominate Sheree and Liz this week, as neither can participate in the veto.

So what would happen next?

1.) Presuming that neither is saved, and Liz and Sheree are still up on the block. Sheree would get the votes of Nathan and Scott, without a doubt. They know that they're enemies now. Meanwhile, Liz would probably get Eric's vote. Kathleen would be forced to save her dyad partner, Liz.

So that would be 3 votes for Liz and 1 vote for Sheree. Assuming optimal play, however, Dontony and myself would vote for Liz to leave. She is more unpredictable by far (who knows what way she's leaning), and there is a higher chance that Sheree would go after Warthott and not Dontony themselves. Plus she still has penalties that make her easier to oust next time. So if the veto isn't used, Liz should be going home.

2.) There is, of course, the chance that Kathleen or Eric would use the veto to save their dyad partner. What would happen? Well, if Liz was vetoed by Kathleen, Eric would almost certainly be put up her place, separating Sheric. In this case, Sheree would also likely survive, as she is more of an ally to Lizaleen and Dontony than Eric. I would also vote for Sheree to stay. So, if Liz is vetoed and Eric goes up (optimal move), Eric goes home.

If Eric vetoes Sheree, then things are less strong. I do not know whether Kathleen and Warren have a hidden alliance, but I doubt it now. If this happened, Kathleen would go up, and probably survive. In this case, Liz would go home, as Kathleen is easier to beat and also less unpredictable. All of Warthott and Dontony and myself would keep her. So, if Sheree is vetoed and Kathleen goes up (optimal move), Liz goes home.

In short, if there is no veto used, then Liz will be going home. If Liz is saved by the veto, Eric goes home. If Sheree is saved by the veto, Liz goes home. Therefore, all hopes of Lizaleen surviving this week rest in Kathleen winning the veto.

[tom]

What would happen next week? Well, Warthott are a bit screwed, since neither Scott nor Warren can win the HOH, so they need Nathan to win.

I won't be winning HOH, without question. I don't gain by making enemies. Dontony would also gain more by keeping quiet at this point.

So, we are left with only a few candidates: Sheree, Nathan, Kathleen and Eric/Liz. This doesn't bode well for Warthott. If Sheree or Kathleen win (more likely), then Warren and Nathan will be up. Liz and Eric are far less reliable and may aim in other ways. Nathan would probably put up Sheree and Kathleen or Liz, depending on whether Liz survives.

So basically, I am fairly safe until final 8.

ALSO: I have the vote nullifier to use should I need it. Could come in useful...

Do not know, but am searching for who has the nomination immunity and the veto pass things. I was told, but I can't remember who got it. I think it was... whoever stole a box from Sheree. Not sure who...

[DoctorThrills]

Did you ever plan on using this again?

[tom]

Feb 20, 2009 18:16:56 GMT -5 DoctorThrills said:

Did you ever plan on using this again?

I won't be playing the vote nullifier this round.

Sorry, I kinda owe a new update.

Apparently, I'm safe this week. All 4 voters have told me that I'm staying so I figure I'm safe (or I'm stupid).

That should leave the final 6 as Warren, Nathan, Scott, Anthony, Tom and Sheree.

Next round should be interesting.

Scott won HOH, and I still have no incentive to win. I hope Sheree wins so that either Warren or Nathan can leave. Basically, I need the trio of Warren, Scott and Nathan broken up, otherwise I become essentially useless in their plans. Fingers crossed, but I think otherwise it could be hard. We'll see...

(I can't win as it would involve betraying somebody.)

[DoctorThrills]

You know, competing and trying to win a challenge might do you some good every once in a while. Especially when you're nominated for eviction. Not to mention when not doing them will result in a nomination.

[tom]

Feb 25, 2009 23:37:53 GMT -5 DoctorThrills said:

You know, competing and trying to win a challenge might do you some good every once in a while. Especially when you're nominated for eviction. Not to mention when not doing them will result in a nomination.

Oh, that's very true. But I saw pre-veto that the challenge wasn't time sensitive. I thought that it would give me until morning to complete it, 24 hours. (As I said in my application, I am from the UK, so occassionally have time-zone issues.)

I imagine that you dislike my strategy and consider me to be an inactive player. However, I am playing to win, and sometimes that doesn't mean challenge victory is optimal. As far as I'm concerned, I'm playing a damn good game. Scheming and plotting are, for me, more crucial than challenge wins until now.

I realise that this is no excuse for the HoH challenge, where my nomination was justified.

Watch me win the next HoH, though. From now on I am going all out to win everything I can.